Subdued growth and low consumer confidence feel like the new norm for the UK economy, and looking forward to 2026, there is little to boost the morale of marketers trying to tap into a brighter new year on a macro level.

Most GDP forecasts for 2026 predict growth ranging somewhere between 1% and 1.4%. Even at the higher end of the scale, this forecast suggests there will be little to get brands excited about growth on a macroeconomic level.

The OECD projects UK GDP growth will slow to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4% this year. Professional services firm KPMG predicts GDP growth of 1% in 2026, again down from 1.4% this year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s fiscal watchdog, which makes its forecast based on the government’s stated policy. The OBR is slightly more optimistic about prospects for growth, forecasting 1.4% growth; however, this is down versus 1.5% this year.

Fundamentally, our job is to drive growth. If you’re not doing that, you’re not doing your job.

Chris Doe, Pilgrim’s Europe

Both the OECD and KPMG highlight consumer confidence as one key barrier to strong growth in 2026. In the most recent GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer, the headline score was -17, which despite being up two points compared to last month was described as “nothing to get excited about”.

Unsurprisingly, lacklustre consumer confidence is negatively impacting businesses’ thoughts about the year ahead. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) forecasts business investment falling significantly from expected growth of 3% in 2025, to just 0.9% in 2026.

So marketers face a tough year ahead, where consumers may not be particularly inclined to spend, and businesses not particularly inclined to invest. A backdrop that doesn’t bode well for growth in the new year.

A marketer’s job is growth

While November’s UK budget was greeted with no great enthusiasm, it does act to provide some much needed certainly for the year ahead.

“It just allows people to plan a bit more,” says Chris Doe, UK marketing and innovation director at Pilgrim’s Europe, which owns brands including Richmond and Fridge Raiders.

“I think it’s the not knowing, and the ambiguity around it, particularly all the speculation that came out in the weeks leading up to it, I think it just causes people to expect the worst-case scenario.”

Despite being grateful for more certainty for the year ahead, Doe does say growth will be “hard to come by” in 2026.

In the gloom of this post-budget reckoning, marketers have an opportunity to lead with optimism

While driving growth won’t be easy, he believes it provides an exciting challenge for marketers.

“Marketing is the growth engine of the business,” he says. “Fundamentally, our job is to drive growth. If you’re not doing that, you’re not doing your job.”

Low consumer sentiment and a tough economic backdrop, make brand all the more important, says Pavan Chandra, marketing manager at McBride, which owns brands including Oven Pride and Surcare.

Uncertainty causes consumers to be more cautious about where they spend their money, he asserts, with many requiring brands to be clear on the value they’re offering.

“We will have to be on it, in terms of what will really give the consumer, something that no one else can, or something that gives them comfort,” says Chandra.

The power of incremental innovation

In terms of particular levers McBride will be leaning on in the new year, Chandra highlights work that is truly “incremental”.

“It’s all about incrementality of audience. How do I either bring up basket spend for the retailers, or how do I increase the audience?” he says.

One of the key brands Chandra manages is laundry detergent Surcare, which operates in a high penetration category. It will be extremely difficult to bring in new consumers into the category; however, the brand is leaning into its positioning as good for sensitive skin to drive incrementality in basket spend.

It is also leaning on what Chandra terms “real innovation”, meaning not just new variations of scent, for example, but NPD that will truly be incremental.

The illusion of innovation: When new products and redesigned packs don’t solve a real problem

“For us, it’s very much about being able to take advantage of those categories that might be quite small at the moment, something like liquid scent boosters, and looking at that for the future, and seeing where we can take it,” he says.

While a brand like Surcare’s growth challenge in 2026 is to compete against giants of the category, some marketers face the task on maintaining and building on dominant market position.

Yorkshire Tea is the leader in the black tea market, with share of around 40% in the category. While maintaining and strengthening that position is vital, innovation is also a crucial puzzle piece of future growth for the brand, says its head of brand marketing, Ben Newbury.

“It’s about making sure our portfolios is right and relevant for the consumer needs,” he says, stating the brand has already launched on a relatively small scale into iced tea and kombucha.

Starting small

While innovation done well is a powerful lever for growth, it is one that often requires significant investment. With business sentiment for the year ahead extremely subdued, many marketers will be faced with leadership reluctant to loosen the purse strings to invest significantly.

Any marketer looking to drive growth in 2026 should start by “doing the basics really well”, says Rhea Fox, marketing director for experience gifts at Moonpig. That means working with your existing levers, not necessarily introducing more things into the mix.

That approach can help build confidence in the business to invest more ambitiously, she says.

“You can build confidence that you change some numbers, and you can build a bit of a war chest with cash that frees you up to do more exciting brand-led stuff,” she notes.

That means that we have to spend wiser, and it means that every time we go to battle, we have to win.

Pavan Chandra, McBride

Rather than turning immediately to brand campaigns or big pieces of innovation, Doe says marketers should look to “sweat those commercial levers a bit more”.

“That means you do need to roll your sleeves up and get back to basics,” he says. “Have you got the right pricing strategy? Are your promotions as strong as they can be. Are you adding value at the point of purchase? Are your products distributed everywhere they can be?”

Now more than ever marketers must prioritise knowledge of effectiveness, he adds.

“I think it requires you to understand the returns you’re getting on different parts of your mix,” he says. “So I think it’s in times like this where you have to have a really good grasp on effectiveness, because if you know which channels work best, then you can shift your spend towards them.”

Setting expectations

While marketing ought to be the engine of growth in any business, marketers also should be realistic, both with themselves and with the business about their goals for driving growth.

Marketers ought to think about their category, and its projected growth says Fox, and ask themselves, “what does growth mean to you?”.

Building a clear plan at the outset is crucial, notes McBride’s Chandra, who worked with the business to secure a three-year plan, which saw it agree to more than treble its brand spend.

With a brand like Surcare, the business is competing against huge brands, with dominant market share and big budgets.

“That means that we have to spend wiser, and it means that every time we go to battle, we have to win,” he says.

Why marketing is key to delivering profitable growth

While there is an expectation that, with smaller budgets than some of its competitors, the business has to work extra hard to make every penny count, there is realism that brands like Surcare are on a growth journey.

The business is not aiming to “boil the sea”, says Chandra, instead taking things “step by step”.

“What I am going to try and do is slowly build my household penetration, and that comes in phases,” he says.

Yorkshire Tea is owned by Taylors of Harrogate, which is a family-owned business, and one that very much sees its ownership of its brands as “stewardship”, notes Newbury.

The ethos of the business is a “really sustainable” approach to growth, he says, noting that this means stability and making high quality products that are never threatened by the pursuit of year-over-year growth.

Across the full mix

Whether it’s innovation or more commercial levers like pricing and distribution strategy, it is clear thar growth in 2026 will require more than communications.

However, it’s worth noting that fairly often these levers can sit outside of marketers’ reach. In Marketing Week’s 2025 Career & Salary survey, it emerged that very few marketers have influence over all 4Ps of the marketing mix.

Just 34.1% of the more than 3,500 marketers responding to Marketing Week’s exclusive 2025 Career & Salary Survey either personally, or within their team, have influence over pricing. Even fewer are involved in discussions over place, with just 32.7% reporting having any influence over the distribution strategy.

Having influence across the full mix involves some “give and take”, says Doe.

‘An engine of growth, not a cost’: Carlsberg’s CMO on marketing’s imperative to drive growth

“You’ve got to be able to bring people into the problem, and you’ve got to make people feel like you’re solving it together, rather than it just being one function’s responsibility,” he says.

While growth is always a whole business job, marketing can play a unique role, not just in driving growth for in 2026, notes Doe, but in lighting the path for growth in years to come.

“There is no other function in the business that is defining where it goes next. It’s really up to marketing to say, this is where the next consumer opportunity is,” he says.