After the recession in the 2010s, Queen Elizabeth went down to the London School of Economics and took the economists to task.

Never rude of course, but she asked them fairly pointedly why they hadn’t seen the crash coming, and then, why they hadn’t come up with useful things that policymakers could do about it.

And in that moment, even the most anti-royal marketers could get behind her. After all, who of us hasn’t felt frustrated by the lack of a good answer about what’s next in the economy, or been blindsided by an unpredicted swing?

Today, the big question is whether and when the current pattern of stubbornly slow economic growth will end. And so, whether and when we can bin ‘do more with less’ and get back to bold marketing plans.

On this, economists do have a theory. And even though it doesn’t come with a guarantee or a confirmed timeline, there is good news on the horizon.

Because if they’re right, the current economic ‘meh’ is a temporary pause for experimentation ahead of an upcoming great surge in growth, and with it, big-impact marketing.

B2B marketers on learning to say no in a ‘more with less’ world

We’re between two ‘long waves’ of innovation-led growth

As economic theories go, this one is light on nerdiness, but strong on predicting long-term growth.

The insight is that company growth, and so economic growth, comes from businesses investing in new and better ways of doing things. Growth is fast when new technology offers good opportunities and weak when available technology is old or uncertain.

The explanation of current slow growth is that there’s not much left to gain from investment in ecommerce or IT. And, because they’re so new, the benefit of installing AI, biotech or renewables is not certain enough for most companies to pile in.

The diagram below is an explainer for how long waves have played out across the centuries.

Techno-limbo happens when, at the start of each new wave, there’s a period of slow and uncertain adoption. It’s where the curves in the top pane are flat and economic growth, in the bottom, is slow.

Limbo is followed by a spurt in adoption as experimentation identifies clear benefits of the tech. Once businesses are confident to invest, they are able to progress quickly and economic growth recovers.

Economists who match this theory to real economic growth data disagree about the exact dates that each wave occupies, but many agree that the last five-ish years mark the end of one wave, and the start of another.

If they’re right, the theory goes that over the next five to 10 years, we’ll begin a period of rapid adoption, progress and prosperity which will last for several decades.

Making the case for marketing budgets

Wherever there is slow growth, there are also conflicts. When the pie isn’t getting any bigger, anyone that wants more has to get it from someone else.

Big picture, this is the explanation economists give for messy global international relations. Growth in OECD countries has averaged 1.8% in the 2020s, well below the 3.1% long run average. It means that making any country great again means diminishing another one.

Closer to home, UK companies are also wrestling with slower growth. According to the ONS, over half are reporting no change in their revenue, with a further third seeing revenue decline.

It’s no wonder CMOs and marketing directors are being asked to do more with less. Without growth, there is always conflict over money for initiatives. No department can spend a lot, and those that do better get a bang for every single buck.

But this isn’t to say that you should give up on the tussle for budget.

The evidence is still clear that, as long as your category is going to survive, advertising through a downturn or slow economy makes you a winner when growth returns.

Please do feel free to put the chart below in front of your finance director if they are not convinced.

And, if your business has ambitions to make a play in the next technology upswing, whether using AI, biotech or renewables, take it to the CEO.

Tell them that positive consumer perceptions are part of the foundation they need to lay.

Brand building now, when others are holding back, will prove an important advantage when, in a few years, you and your competitors are fighting to be market leaders in the new space.

‘Outthink rather than outspend’: How marketers are dealing with the challenge of more with less

As long as you’re not a high street betting shop, there’s hope

In the last long wave, online beat the high street for gambling, and betting shops have now all but disappeared.

So, it’s worth having a good long think about whether your current category might go the same way when AI, renewables and biotech take off. You don’t want to bet large marketing budgets – or, worse, your career – on something that’s going to struggle then disappear.

It’s not an easy prediction task. 2026’s equivalent in the last wave was 1996. We had the internet but you couldn’t buy anything on it, and many pioneering companies had spent too much and didn’t survive the stock market crash in 2001.

But for most businesses, there is hope.

Amazon, Meta, Google, Open AI and Anthropic are spending eye-watering amounts developing AI that improves what a single person can achieve. And companies you’ve never heard of are doing the same in biotech and clean energy.

This means that, even if there is a stock-market crash, and some of today’s AI pioneers don’t make it, most categories that marketers work in will do well in the 2030s.

Right now, all a wise business has to do is hang in there, accept the pause, and use it to set up for the spurt.

And, maybe, when the good times prevail, the economists won’t be told off. Perhaps they’ll even get invited to the palace for tea.